I asked some playing cards - using psychic magics, who will win the Alberta Election.
They said Prentice will win by 9 seats and the legislature will last for 4 full years. In addition, they said that Jean would be the big loser, all 3 opposition parties will do poorly and fail to achieve their goals, and, uh, something about Notley and the number 6.
Wanted to write that here in the unlikely event it happens.
Friday, May 1, 2015
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Set your own tax rate
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-31907670
In Mali apparently you can pick your own tax bracket, 3% or 30%
That got me to thinking, what tax rate would you set for yourself.
I expect half the people who reply to this to be like "0% LOL" but let's see where this goes.
Me:
0 sales taxes, other pseudo sales taxes (gas tax, alcohol tax, etc)
0% tax under $2,500 a month
50% tax on income above $2,500 a month
In Mali apparently you can pick your own tax bracket, 3% or 30%
That got me to thinking, what tax rate would you set for yourself.
I expect half the people who reply to this to be like "0% LOL" but let's see where this goes.
Me:
0 sales taxes, other pseudo sales taxes (gas tax, alcohol tax, etc)
0% tax under $2,500 a month
50% tax on income above $2,500 a month
Thursday, March 5, 2015
Monday, February 23, 2015
Wikipedia is always right (cause you can make it right)
Wikipedia might not be the most trusted source. Why? Because anyone can edit it. Therefore it can easily be wrong.
However, by the same token, it's more likely to be right. Why? Because anyone can edit it. If someone puts something wrong in, anyone can change it back to what is right.
I frequently tell people who try to argue that Wikipedia is wrong, that if that's the case, they should edit it, and if the edit stands (IE if nobody contests it, or, if they win such a contention) then I will back down and accept their position.
However, by the same token, it's more likely to be right. Why? Because anyone can edit it. If someone puts something wrong in, anyone can change it back to what is right.
I frequently tell people who try to argue that Wikipedia is wrong, that if that's the case, they should edit it, and if the edit stands (IE if nobody contests it, or, if they win such a contention) then I will back down and accept their position.
Monday, February 9, 2015
Blocked on twitter
@DougSaunders @kylejhutton by the same token it's natural immigrants (who live in cities) will be over-represented.
@DougSaunders @kylejhutton put 100 people on 2 buses. 70 and 30. ask these 100 how many on buses average? answer will be 58. math.
Those who create these graphics and polls do not understand simple math. @DougSaunders @kylejhutton
Given the title, it's obvious this guy blocked me. Given the post just before this one, you can see he, in fact, blocked me because I've proven he can't math.
I am not posting this to say he should unblock me. I am posting this as an answer to everyone who blocks me for something petty and stupid:
Please never unblock me. Ever. You are the kind of person who is what is wrong with this world, who puts your fingers in your ears and goes LALALALA whenever someone says something you don't want to hear.
It's one thing to unfollow someone. To block them means you never, ever, want to hear from them again.
And if you never want to hear from me again, you are free to make that decision. However. Never is a long time, and I will hold you to that decision.
OMG MUSLIMS - the math
Take 100 people.
Put them on 2 buses.
Put 50 on one bus and 50 on another.
Now, presume each person is great at counting, and perfectly honest.
Ask them how many people were on their bus.
Average those numbers to find out the average on the buses.
Answer?
50.
Simple right?
Now put 70 on one bus and 30 on another.
Same request.
Answer?
58.
But wait, how? You have 70 answers with 70, and 30 with 30. 70*70=4900 and 30*30=900. 4900+900=5800.
When you concentrate people in an area and ask them how many people they are, you end up over the real number, even if the people are perfectly honest.
Toronto, for example, has 2.5 million people, and is 6% muslim, and also 15% south asian. These will skew any numbers you ask for immigrants, etc. Consider as well Toronto is 7.2% Black, and african-canadians are, in general, not as widespread.
Beyond that you have class differences.
I am working class. Polls say 1/3rd of Canadians are.
Working class people like me end up in working class jobs, and in working class areas, and take working class transportation, like the bus.
I can assure you, from personal experience, that far more than 6% of people I see in these places are muslim, though this likely is more due to my location than my class.
All these reasons explain why you'd end up with a higher than average number of muslims when you ask "How many muslims are there" polls. In addition, urban people, I find, are more likely to report what they see (I've spoken to many people about these polls) whereas rural people almost always say "well I know in the city..." and so they too over-estimate the numbers for the same reason.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-10-things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx
Polls like this are nonsense for that reason. They heavily imply the only reason to over-estimate muslims is...
1 - Fear, racist fear
2 - Immigration, anti immigration
3 - Hate, muslim hate
4 - Stupidity, from not knowing what is going on
The reality is, in almost every country, you can account for half or more than half of the "over-estimation" with just the math alone, and when you add in class differences, and rural estimations of urban life, you get very close to reality.
Notice how the numbers in the Western countries are similar. France has a over-estimation of 4 times the real amount, the UK also near 4, Belgium 5, Germany 3, Sweden 3. Italy 5, Only in places like Spain (with much lower amounts of immigration compared) or Hungary and Poland (where racism is more common) have a larger over-estimation.
In addition to all of this, there are more issues
If these polls were done in urban areas that could explain everything with just one step.
If they ignored cell phone users they could have had an older base, and thus, skewed the results.
And lastly, in the poll I linked to above, you can see some of the answer itself in the list of 9 things people mis-estimate.
The Media.
This does not come from hate, or racist attitude. This comes from what the media reports on. Everything that respondents were wrong about, every last one, was something that has been the focus of media stories.
With all that it's no wonder the numbers were not even higher.
Put them on 2 buses.
Put 50 on one bus and 50 on another.
Now, presume each person is great at counting, and perfectly honest.
Ask them how many people were on their bus.
Average those numbers to find out the average on the buses.
Answer?
50.
Simple right?
Now put 70 on one bus and 30 on another.
Same request.
Answer?
58.
But wait, how? You have 70 answers with 70, and 30 with 30. 70*70=4900 and 30*30=900. 4900+900=5800.
When you concentrate people in an area and ask them how many people they are, you end up over the real number, even if the people are perfectly honest.
Toronto, for example, has 2.5 million people, and is 6% muslim, and also 15% south asian. These will skew any numbers you ask for immigrants, etc. Consider as well Toronto is 7.2% Black, and african-canadians are, in general, not as widespread.
Beyond that you have class differences.
I am working class. Polls say 1/3rd of Canadians are.
Working class people like me end up in working class jobs, and in working class areas, and take working class transportation, like the bus.
I can assure you, from personal experience, that far more than 6% of people I see in these places are muslim, though this likely is more due to my location than my class.
All these reasons explain why you'd end up with a higher than average number of muslims when you ask "How many muslims are there" polls. In addition, urban people, I find, are more likely to report what they see (I've spoken to many people about these polls) whereas rural people almost always say "well I know in the city..." and so they too over-estimate the numbers for the same reason.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-10-things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx
Polls like this are nonsense for that reason. They heavily imply the only reason to over-estimate muslims is...
1 - Fear, racist fear
2 - Immigration, anti immigration
3 - Hate, muslim hate
4 - Stupidity, from not knowing what is going on
The reality is, in almost every country, you can account for half or more than half of the "over-estimation" with just the math alone, and when you add in class differences, and rural estimations of urban life, you get very close to reality.
In addition to all of this, there are more issues
If these polls were done in urban areas that could explain everything with just one step.
If they ignored cell phone users they could have had an older base, and thus, skewed the results.
And lastly, in the poll I linked to above, you can see some of the answer itself in the list of 9 things people mis-estimate.
The Media.
This does not come from hate, or racist attitude. This comes from what the media reports on. Everything that respondents were wrong about, every last one, was something that has been the focus of media stories.
With all that it's no wonder the numbers were not even higher.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)