Why I'm voting Liberal

I do not vote based on promises. They are always broken. Each party is "known" to those who know politics. What they say they will do is often different from what they really will do. Most of what the Tories have done (and not promises) or promised but not done is "typical Tory behaviour". The leader is important in that he (or she) can stop certain things (Harper has done so with social issues, because all the polls tell him that if they act on abortion, they will lose voters) or that the leader can drive towards certain goals.

As such I know the NDP will spend more than they claim, will raise taxes farther than they claim, and will do more to help the needy. The NDP's main goal is to make a Canada where the poor class can become lower middle class.

I know the Liberals will spend themselves happy and try to cut taxes at the same time, they are the most likely to give us a deficit, and this is the first time they've been honest about that. They want a Canada where the lower middle class can become the upper middle class.

The Tories will cut spending and taxes when they can, and, if they can get away with, reverse social progress. So far the polls have not let them do this. Their dream Canada is one where people who are upper middle class can become rich.

In order to "adjust" the classes, you need to remove barriers. Doing so costs money, either in spending, tax cuts, or both. In order to make up for this, parties throw up barriers in one of the other paths. The Tories for example have done quite a bit to ensure the poor can not become lower middle class. At this time, the path from making $45,000 a year to $250,000 a year is easier than it's ever been, and the path from $13,000 a year to $35,000 a year has never been more difficult. The Canada I'd create is where going from $13,000 a year to $95,000 a year is easy, but getting much beyond that is a hell of a struggle.

There is, however, more than economics. Justice issues, security issues, foreign affairs.

The Tories favour a "harsh" approach. They want (to simplify) a cop on every corner with the power to search everyone, and would like to tell other world leaders they disagree with to %^&* off.

The Liberals want a "gentle" approach. While they generally support the cops, they'd much rather see them focus on specifics, and with other world leaders, if there is a profit to be made by business, the key word is hush.

The NDP want a "loud" approach. Cops should spend lest time acting and more time getting "involved in the community" (Ie talking to them) while other world leaders will be lectured.

In this field, my Canada is a Tory Canada. The NDP approach is one I find annoying at the very least.


So what of the current leaders, and current situation? What would they do over the next 4 years?


Harper would likely keep the surplus/deficit very very small. He'll make sure to make enough tax cuts every year so that the next year's surplus is tiny, so tiny that he will need to justify cuts to programs. He would likely try to make our country more like the US when it comes to civil rights related to terrorism, and would continue to hold back his caucus on social issues. Despite that I don't see him really going after the needy in any significant way. Harper would be the best friend of money. Not "people" money, mostly corporate money and investment.

Trudeau would spend the first 18 months getting a handle on things. This is not unusual, Chretien did the same thing, and Chretien was not "inexperienced". After that we would see him try to solidify our relationship with China, as well as push programs for the middle classes, and those with children. I could see many deficits as he is also liable to keep taxes low, and for those making about $50,000, it's likely they'd have a lower tax rate after 4 years of Trudeau than 4 years of Harper. I can also see Trudeau taking the first, real steps to healing our relations with first nations people.

Mulcair will be fighting his caucus the entire way. The NDP would likely rake in some truly massive surpluses, the sort that would make Chretien and Martin jealous. I could also see increased spending on programs to help those in the working class, and a re-adjustment of the focus of government away from the middle class and more towards a mosaic of targeted issues. On the world stage I expect to see a "quieter" Canada. Less stuff that you end up reading in the news. I also, ironically, expect a far more active Canada. The reason you won't read about it is it will involve a lot of work with "loser countries".


In terms of self interest, the NDP is my clear option here. However, in terms of who would increase Canada's GDP the most, the Tories are the clear answer. However, in terms of people, the Liberals would do the most to increase the total income of all Canadians when combined.


The problem is this is NOT all there is.


The Greens exist. They want to do things like make more free votes in Parliament, and make stronger ethical laws. They want to restore logic to decision making. They also want to help natives. Biggest of all is Green support for a basic income, something I support. They even want lower, or no, tuition for university. However, their environmental policies are things I can not agree with. I wish there was a "Green Party" that was not so "Green".

Thus, I should vote Green, right?


Nope.


My riding will be won by the Tories.
Even if the NDP wins a majority, the Tories win it. The Greens could win it with a majority, but they are sitting on 1, maybe 2, possibly 3 seats, not the 170 or so they need for a government. The Liberals could win it if they were around 200 seats, but currently, they are about half that.

As such, it does not matter to the outcome how I vote. Thus, other things matter.


The Tories and NDP are far too ideological. If, for example, you could prove without a doubt to the NDP that our public healthcare system is a bad idea, they'd stick with it, because their ideology tells them that it should work. The Tories are the same on many issues. As such, I can not "trust" either party.

The Liberals are pragmatic, but "too" pragmatic in that they'd sacrifice the 10% of poorest Canadians, along with the 10% of richest, if it meant getting the votes of the 80% of the remainder.

The Greens can't win, and even if they could, they are full of people who don't expect to win and would almost certainly $%^& up everything they touched, not to mention they are full of ideologues.


So, I don't vote then?


Nope.


See, I don't do that "secret ballot" thing. I tell everyone how I vote.
As such, it is important to me how my vote impacts the way people see me.
As such, that, is the #1 most important thing, this election, in deciding how I will vote, and as such, I've made my decision.


I will go to the polls with all the ID I have. If it's not enough to meet the new ID requirements for voting, I will not obtain other ID (asking the landlord for a letter proving I live there, for example) I will be happy to be turned away as it means I can say for the next 4 years that I was not allowed to vote because I was too poor to afford one of those "Ontario ID" cards that people can get if they don't have a drivers lic that has all their information.
"Too poor to vote". And it will be true.

If I am allowed to vote - as I should be (I've read the legislation) - I will vote.
See, I know people who are Liberal (along with people who are Tory, NDP, and Green) and overwhelmingly the people who are Liberal are people who I want to be around. People who support the other parties annoy me to hell with their sanctimonious screeching.

And thus, my answer is





Liberal
I plan to vote Liberal.

An open letter to some female reporters

Have you heard someone say "Fuck her right in the pussy"

If so I have news for you.

Educate yourself.
And more importantly, get over yourself. You are not her.

Licen

I used to know a guy that, instead of saying "Licence" for just one of them, would say "Licen"

Personal blog again

Just a reminder, to those who have come here for politics

GO HERE
http://teddyonpolitics.blogspot.ca/

This is my personal blog! I want to be able to say fuck again.

go here

http://teddyonpolitics.blogspot.ca/2015/09/grand-opening.html

And stay there!

You know what...

First off, I admit, I have some warm sake in me, but, the following is thus only more true.



you know what?
I really don't think the election result will matter all *THAT* much.
Sure
Trudeau
Mulcair
Harper
They'd all govern differently. They would create a "different" Canada...
...But
I'm selfish

I need to think what matters to me
to ME and people like me.

Who is "me"?

I am someone who lives on around $14K a year
And to be blunt
Totally blunt
I really don't think that Harper will harm me. He's not until now, so why start?
And
I really don't think either Trudeau or Mulcair will help me.
Why would they? The votes of "me" and those like me, will not matter.
In addition, they've both basically said - though their other commitments - they flat out won't help people like me.

So you know what?
Who wins this election, really does not matter to me, to me on a selfish level.


AND



As such
I've decided how I'm going to vote.




You see, I've moved in the last few months.
And I am not registered, Federally, in my new riding.

Yes, I did vote provincially, in a by-election, a week or two ago, but
I've not done anything to register Federally.


My plan is thus

On election day
Not before
On election day

I will show up at the poll with my ID (health card and ODSP 'pay' stub)
And if they turn me away?


SO
BE
IT


That will be my protest against the new voter ID system.
I want to be able to say I was turned away
I've done nothing wrong
And yet? I was turned away
Turned away because I was too poor to afford any "better" ID

So why all that stuff earlier?
Well
What if my vote is the 1 vote that matters
What if it is the 1 vote that decides if this riding goes Tory, NDP, or Liberal?
And what if this is the 1 riding that decides if the winner is the CPC, LPC, or NDP
Or what if this is the 1 riding that determines if the CPC, LPC, or NDP has a majority?

Well, you know what?
It dont matter.


Call me selfish, but, I will be voting for me, for my interests, and as such, I will not take any extra steps (like registering in advance, which I know I can do) to avoid being turned away.


And if I'm not turned away?

I vote Liberal. Simple as that.

Update

a few things

I suppose I should have seen it, given Labour Day passed, but suddenly, everyone wants to know what's going on with my projections.

So a few basic things

1 - Who are you?
I'm Teddy.

2 - Who is that?
See this?
http://www.calgarygrit.ca/?p=3020
That person who did best in riding by riding projections in 2011?
That's me.

3 - Oh, so your good then?
At numbers yes, not at words. Don't expect to be reading articles written by me in the CBC. I'm a numbers person and a map person.

4 - So what can you tell me about the election?
Uh. Nothing, I'm a numbers person and a maps person. If you are a visual person like me, I can tell you a lot, but if you are a word person, you may not appreciate what I do.

5 - So what's this all about?
This blog? It's my personal blog. Look through it if you want to find swearing and inappropriate conversation topics.

6 - Whoa, wait, what?
No worries. I'm working on a new blog. I had planned to continue as co-blogger of http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/ but that was shockingly (to me anyway, still not over the shock) shut down during the 2 months I was without internet thanks to incompetence on the part of Bell and/or TekSavvy and/or my Landlord.

7 - So you are unready?
To say the least. I was supposed to have a fully ready website on Blunt Objects. In addition, I was not expecting to go for 2 months without the internet, as, I'd planned to prepare during that time, and, given that the call of the election was during my offline period, I have had a *lot* of catching up to do.

8 - So what are you going to do about it?
I'm starting a new website. It's not ready just yet, but it might be tomorrow, or, maybe not until the 21st of September, but somewhere in between, it will be.

WHEN it is, you will be able to see riding by riding numbers. Until then, you'll just have to do with the maps. Sorry, but I need to spend my limited time doing a number of many other things.

Go back to that link in question 2.
Note the last placed entry? They don't do math based projections.

I do

308 does

I beat 308. I was better than him. By far.
And yet my website went under due to lack of interest.
And he got hired by the CBC.
Why?

As I said. I am not a "words" person, I am a "numbers" person.

People, it seems, care less about accurate numbers and more about bullshit explanations that may or may not be true.
And yes, I'm still raw about it. You'd think it'd matter being right, but apparently, not.

Regardless, I'll start working on the new blog. Expect a map update in the next day or two.

New Blog coming

For the record, I am working on creating a new blog. It will be up and running, at the latest, by September 21st.

update

Updated Projection

Raw numbers

N - 131
L - 103
C - 102
G - 3

I don't recall ever having the Tories in third before.

Golden rule of poll averaging

Never, ever, use less than 5 polls.

If 4 polls have been taken this week, and the 5th is from 2 years ago, then you do not have enough data for a poll average.

Period.

SFDebris

Here's a list for myself of the stuff I missed due to not having internet, and due to blip shutting down with so little warning that now I can't watch these episodes anywhere.



TNG: Ethics

Red Dwarf: Fathers and Suns

Rise and Fall of the Comic Empire, Part 6

DS9: Hippocratic Oath

Fringe: What Lies Below

Rise and Fall of the Comic Empire Part 7

VOY: Demon

In the Mouth of Madness

Full Moon Ep 11 (The Dangerous Lens)

Rise and Fall of the Comic Empire Part 8

VOY: Course Oblivion

Bionicle 3

Rise and Fall of the Comic Empire

TNG: Frame of Mind

Rise and Fall of the Comic Empire Part 10

Rise and Fall of the Comic Empire Part 11

DS9: Inquisition

Rise and Fall of the Comic Empire Part 12

Rise and Fall of the Comic Empire Part 13

TNG: The Chase

Atlantis: Letters From Pegasus



I don't suppose anyone knows anywhere else where I can find these?

Vote Splitting

If you think vote splitting is a problem today, imagine the headaches in Verdun in 1935. #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/f28Hw2kCR6

— Paul Fairie (@paulisci) September 2, 2015

neat

The new Montreal poll

My ElectoMatic has the following results, right now, for Montreal - from before this poll.

Lib - 38.4%
NDP - 35.3%
CPC - 10.4%

It does not exactly match up with the poll, but it is rather close

Especially how people are freaking out about how this changes everything.

It does not
Or, perhaps to be more accurate:
For those who are not as smart as me when it comes to making projections, maybe it changes everything, but for those who know what the hell they are doing, it is meaningless.