I need more than 140 letters, or a single facebook box, to make this clear, so here goes:
Lets examine some alternate history scenarios to show you what I mean when I say Sudbury was Liberal, but Thibeault won.
Some terms to keep things short:
GT = Glenn Thibeault
Lib = Liberal Party
NDP = New Democratic Party
AO = Andrew Olivier, former Liberal candidate
Note as well that I am talking provincially unless I specifically say I mean Federally.
Lets go back in time. The NDP won the riding last election, but the sitting MPP quit.
So, lets presume that's all. Feds don't get involved. What happens?
Dont matter who runs for them. AO or someone else. Lib win. The Liberals had the advantage.
But what of GT?
Let say he quits as MP but nothing else changes.
Lets say he stays MP but becomes a Liberal.
Lets say he quits as MP and runs as a Liberal
Well, we just saw that, so it's not alternate history.
Lets now say he quits as an MP and runs for the NDP.
NDP win, why? GT win. That's why.
Quits and runs as an Independent?
IND win because GT win.
But what if GT quits, but loses the nom for the Libs to AO?
Lib win. AO win is not what happens, sure it's a side effect, but it's not an AO win, it's a Lib win.
AO runs for the NDP against a Lib GT
Lib win. GT is what won it.
AO does not run at all?
GT still wins, likely by similar margins. Lack of AO would have impacted turnout, not votes.
This riding was always the Liberals to lose, the only way they could have lost was GT running NDP.
In addition, this by-election was really unimportant. There are no big issues, there are no number changes that mean anything.
It is thus silly to expect the NDP would have won, silly to expect the NDP leader to resign over this, and silly to think bribery had anything to do with anything; it was about GT, the actions of Lib and AO don't mean a thing.