Monday, February 2, 2015

Alternate History

Situation 2

Er, I should clarify.
Most Alt-Hist is about the NAZIs winning the war. The second most popular is the Confederacy winning the Civil War. Hence "Situation 2", as the latter is what this question is.

So, the South wins. They decide to "become" the USA.

At first they try to do the "all of the USA" thing, but they face near immediate rebels from the New England states. They allow these states to become their own country, with slavery abolished. 

Then stuff.

Then, they pass the following amendments to the constitution.


>>States can not abolish slavery, it is legal everywhere in the CSA.<<
13th Amendment, would later be seen like the "2nd Amendment", but this as the "Slave Amendment"

>>States can not prohibit slave owners, with slaves, to travel or visit.<<
14th Amendment. While states could not prohibit slavery, they could always simply not support it.
Judgements on the 13th and 14th amendments allowed taxes on slave holding, so long as not "undue"
This amendment is seen as a way to protect visitors from being taxed from passing though the state.
In addition, this amendment is used to reinforce the return to runaway slaves. 

>>Senators shall serve at the pleasure of each house of the state legislature.<<
15th Amendment. Later interpretations would have an unintended consequence
Court rulings would determine this meant EACH house.
Thus, one Senator would serve at the pleasure of the state Senate, and one at the state House.
This also meant that each state would be required to have two houses, not one or three.
Court rulings also clarified that 'at the pleasure' means they can be fired at any time.
This would include between the time they cast a ballot within the Senate, and those ballots were counted.
In effect, this makes Senators nothing more than literal mouthpieces of the state legislatures. 


>>Prohibits fed govt from levying income taxes<<
16th Amendment. Courts would later rule that the fed govt was also unable to levy property taxes.
However, courts would rule they were allowed to levy sales taxes.

>>Codifies the right of slave owners to free their own slaves; allows slaves of all races<<
17th Amendment. Created registry of freed slaves, and clarified that slavery was not "a negro thing"

>>Prohibited the manufacture or sale of alcohols within the CSA<<
18th Amendment. Also known as "Prohibition" 

>>Allowed free citizens of all genders and races to vote, if free for 25 years.<<
19th Amendment. Allowed all white women to vote, and all citizens, on a 25 year condition.
This would mean immigrants and freed slaves need to live as citizens for 25 years before voting.


>>Would allow fed regulation of child labour<<
Would allow for federal prohibition of child labour.


>>Changes date of elected officials taking office<<
20th Amendment. Specified that Fed house members, the Prez and VP take office on Jan 1st.
Also set election day as 1st Tuesday after 1st Monday in November.
Also adjusted mandatory meeting date for Congress to once a year, in March. 


>>Repeal 18th amendment<<
Would end prohibition.


>>Forbids and prohibition against the sale and use of Marijuana in the CSA<<
21st amendment. In response to failure to repeal 18th amendment. 

>>Term limits for federal officers<<
22nd amendment. Outlines term limits for 3 main elected federal officers.
President can only serve for 8 in any 16 years
Senators can only serve for 6 in any 12 years
Representatives can only serve for 4 in any 8 years

>>Grants statehood to DC<<
23rd amendment. Also re-attaches "Virginia Side" to DC.

>>Provides for minimum care requirements for slaves<<
24th amendment. Known as the "Civil Rights" amendment, longest amendment in history.
Outlined in detail various kinds of poor treatment of slaves that were now prohibited.
Forbade killing of slaves by owner; allowed them to turn slaves over to government.
Forbade torture or other undue punishments of slaves.
Forced owners to take lifetime care of any slave who has been their property for over 45 years.
Listed minimum room sizes and food allowances for slaves.
Prohibited rape of slaves.

>>Outlines disability of President procedure, and how to fill VP vacancies<<
25th amendment. Included long list of successors.

>>Allows 18 year olds to vote<<
26th amendment. Also adjusted the 25 year period from 19th amendment to 18 years.


>>Would abolish slavery<<
Initiated by constitutional convention.


>>Delays pay raises to federal officials until after next election<<
27th amendment. Forgotten remnant of olden days, finally passed.

So. That brings us to the present day, but...


NY, NJ, and PA also try to rebel, refusing to sign the reconstruction amendments. The USA/CSA sends in the army, there are some limited battles, but at the end of the day... _______

What is that blank.

Possibility 1 - They realize they can not turn these 3 states into compliant states within the union. They see how PA played a key role in abolition, and do not want this troublemaking state within the union. They thus allow these 3 states to leave the union and join with New England. 

Possibility 2 - They are able to subdue the rebels. They take the most troublesome troublemakers and exile them to New England, and establish these 3 states as solidly within the union.

Which is more likely?


  1. FTR. According to the average state income tax intake, a 1% US-wide federal sales tax could take in 43 billion dollars.

    1. a 31.6% sales tax could cover all losses from having no income tax. However, it would take an additional 20.9% sales tax to cover the federal deficit.

    2. Assuming each state agreed to hand over $1000 per person...

    3. This confederacy could fund itself on a 10% sales tax, presuming social security, health, human services, and defence were funded fully by the states.

  2. THUS (comments above) we are presuming the country funds itself on a 10% nation-wide sales tax, plus a contribution of around $2,500 per person from each state, indexed to inflation. This would add to around 1 trillion dollars.

    It's further assumed only a third to half of defence spending and control is done by the federal government.

  3. Interesting scenario you've got going here, Teddy. I like it.

    My opinion on the route the CSA would take with the three "rebel" states would depend on the time they're actually let go.

    If the rebel states are causing a problem at around the same time the CSA allows the New England states to leave, then the more likely solution - if it is indeed just these three states - is to allow them to leave, rather than risk having openly rebellious states right next door to a sympathetic foreign power. There is just too much involved with keeping them in against their will, especially when they let the New England states go.

    However, if we're talking about a few decades later, things are different. The CSA would have had to tolerate them for awhile but eventually push would come to shove, and I doubt the CSA would tolerate a movement of rebellious states once they've established their own control (kind of like the USA). They would probably work to subdue the rebels and exile/execute them before losing the land they've worked to keep in the union.

    There's also the matter of the jewel in all of that - New York City. In this alternative universe, is it still a major trading and business centre? Or does it fall by the wayside, with the government encouraging more investment elsewhere in more friendly areas? That would determine a lot of the attitude.

    1. It is a few years after, and, NYC is as prosperous as in our timeline up until 1861. These events take place about 10 years later, so not much time to lose that much prestige.

    2. I'd say that the rebel states join the New England ones then, that just makes the most sense. I doubt the CSA would be in much shape to enforce their rule so soon after the war, though that depends what you view their readiness as like a decade after the fact.

      Also, question: what are the CSA's policies towards Chinese migrant workers? I ask this because of their huge impact on the expansion of the West. Would they just promote slave labour instead?

    3. Likely similar to the CSA movie; as seen here:

    4. here. at about 3 mins 30 seconds in. roughly. (watch for at least a minute)